The hype cycle

Publié le par neovenz

Chaque année, le Gartner publie une nouvelle version de son hype cycle qui place 1 800 micro technologies organisées en 75 macro technologies dans un cycle de 5 phases allant de l’explosion exubérante  jusqu’à une large adoption. Cette année, les technologies qui font l’objet d’une attention toute particulière sont les tablettes, les TV et écrans 3D et les nouvelles interfaces homme / machine qui s’appuient sur le tactile et la détection des mouvements.

 

Mark Raskino précise bien que le hype cycle s’intéresse aux technologies génériques et non aux produits. Les premières arrivent le plus souvent à trouver une niche (pas toujours, comme c’est le cas du Broadband Over Power Lines qui cette année est qualifié d’obsolète) alors que les seconds n’arrivent toujours pas à rencontrer leur marché et leur business model. Les technologies de recherche sur Internet sont devenues omniprésentes alors que la plupart des moteurs ont disparu (la liste des moteurs qui ont disparu est certainement plus longue que celles des moteurs existant aujourd’hui).

 

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"Media tablets, private cloud computing, and 3D flat-panel TVs and displays are some of the technologies that have moved into the Peak of Inflated Expectations, according to the 2010 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle by Gartner, Inc.

Gartner has examined the maturity of 1,800 technologies and trends in 75 technology, topic, and industry areas. Each of the 75 individual Hype Cycle reports provides a snapshot of a key area of IT or business. Senior executives, CIOs, strategists, business developers and technology planners should consider these technologies when developing emerging business and technology portfolios.

 

The "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies" is the longest-running annual Hype Cycle, providing a cross-industry perspective on the technologies and trends that IT managers should consider in developing emerging-technology portfolios.


"The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies features technologies that are the focus of attention in the IT industry because of particularly high levels of hype, or those that may not be broadly acknowledged but which we believe have the potential for significant impact," said Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner Fellow.


"High-impact technologies at the Peak of Inflated Expectations during 2010 include private cloud computing, augmented reality, media tablets (such as the iPad), wireless power, 3D flat-panel TVs and displays, and activity streams, while cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms have tipped over the peak and will soon experience disillusionment among enterprise users," Ms. Fenn said.


Transformational technologies that will hit the mainstream in less than five years include media tablets, cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms. Longer term, beyond the five-year horizon, 3D printing, context delivery architectures, mobile robots, autonomous vehicles, terahertz waves and human augmentation will be transformational across a range of industries, according to Gartner."

 

source : Gartner

Publié dans innovation

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